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Mr GiggleWorth Futures Blog

MARCH 2014

not to be taken seriously
fact and fiction are mixed at my fancy
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MARCH NEWSLETTER


March 2014 - Brochure & Splash Page
download the main document here


Data is probably inaccurate.
But it's intended to track the corn future issues CZ1970 to CZ2013.
Use at own risk.

1970 to 2013 CZ high sell price
High Bid Price For Each Issue

1970 to 2013 CZ high and low sell price
Low Bid Price Added, so the Blue represents the trading range

1970 to 2013 CZ high sell price - fill graph
This is a 'Fill' graph of the High Sell price (next image explains what this is better by contrast).

1970 to 2013 CZ high sell price - fill & bar graph
High Bid Price - Fill Graph overlaid on top of a bar graph.  Notice the trend line.

1970 to 2013 CZ - High Sell Divided by Low Sell Price
I'm calling this the Fractional Average (a made up name, so perhaps giving an indication as to the spuriousness of this metric).  It's the high price of any issue (which is different from the high price per year as many of the issues span multiple years) divided by the low price of the issue.  To my mind (and I could be wrong -- about anything on this site, but especially 'facts' like this), this represents the factor of spread between the low and high.

Or to put it much simpler, the trend line indicates a 50% premium available historically for 'ideal' marketing, with spikes of up to 300% available in the recent past.  Which means, if:

Farmer A Sold on the Best Date
Farmer B Sold on the Worst Date
Farmer A would make on average 50-300% more on his crops than Farmer B.

It's idealized.
It's conceptual.
But this would be the Holy Grail that Marketing Programs are Chasing.

1970 to 2013 CZ - High Low, Fill with Weighted Average Graphs
The scale is all messed up on this graph, but it overlays High/Low price with the Fractional Average perhaps making it clearer (after the fact, at least) when the big money gains (spreads) are to be found.  The red part graphs the ratio of the Blue to the White.  (Fraction Average = High / Low)

That's all for this month.
Mr GigglesWorth is now taking request for basis of next month's graphs.

Perhaps I'll look at the Daily Weighted Average Price and compare that to the High and Low if nothing else sounds interesting.  The Daily Weighted Average Price would provide a Performance Benchmark (even trades daily across the year) to compare with results of any Market Timing (i.e. managed) Marketing Program.


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